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07/28/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Alex Rodriguez was supposed to take center stage in the New York Yankees' game with the Cleveland Indians last night, but an unknown rookie on the opposing team wound up being the star of the show.
After coming up empty once more in his quest to join baseball's 600 home run club, Rodriguez will attempt to help the Yankees bounce back from a loss to the last-place Indians when the two teams continue a four-game series from Progressive Field tonight.
Rodriguez went 0-for-4 in his latest stab at becoming the seventh player in major league history to reach the 600-homer milestone, but he wasn't the only New York hitter who struggled against Cleveland starter Josh Tomlin. The young right-hander delivered seven outstanding innings in his first big-league start as the Indians evened this series with a 4-1 win.
Tomlin, called up from Triple-A Columbus to replace an injured Aaron Laffey in the Cleveland rotation, held New York's potent offense to a run and three hits in a dazzling debut. The 25-year-old did not walk a batter as well and threw 60-of-93 pitches for strikes.
"Outstanding effort by the kid," said Indians manager Manny Acta of Tomlin. "He's not going to be intimidated. He showed tremendous poise out there."
While Tomlin was shutting down the Yankees, his teammates put up four runs off former Indian CC Sabathia to hand the New York ace his first loss since May 23. Sabathia (13-4) lasted seven innings and gave up nine hits while walking three, and was hurt by a pair of Yankee errors that accounted for two earned runs in the fourth.
"My stuff was pretty good but I wasn't getting ahead and putting people away," said Sabathia.
Matt LaPorta went 2-for-3 with two RBI to lead the way offensively for Cleveland, which halted a three-game skid and avenged a 3-2 loss to the Yanks in Monday's opener.
New York lost for only the second time in seven tries but did have its lead atop the American League East shortened when second-place Tampa Bay defeated Detroit on Tuesday. The Rays are now just two games in back of the Yankees.
Rodriguez, meanwhile, has now gone five games and 20 at-bats since hitting career homer No. 599 in a victory over Kansas City last Thursday.
He and the Yankees figure to face a another tough challenge this evening, with the Indians set to send top starter Fausto Carmona to the mound. The 2010 All- Star enters tonight's clash having won his last three starts and sports an impressive 10-7 season record along with a 3.51 earned run average over 20 total appearances.
Carmona got to double-digit wins after yielding one unearned run and a mere one hit while striking out seven over five innings to best Tampa Bay this past Friday. The right-hander did issue six walks in his previous start, but still managed to limit Detroit to three runs through seven innings and pick up a win in a July 17 matchup at Progressive Field.
The 26-year-old, who's 5-4 with a 3.47 ERA in 11 home starts this year, did lose to New York at Yankee Stadium after surrendering four runs in six innings back on May 28. In nine career regular-season appearances (six starts) against the Bronx Bombers, Carmona is 1-3 with a 5.30 ERA.
Rodriguez has two hits, including one homer, and struck out five times in eight lifetime at-bats against Carmona, who's surrendered only seven long balls over 128 1/3 innings pitched this season.
Fresh off a very encouraging last start, A.J. Burnett gets the call for New York and will be aiming to climb over the .500 mark for the season. The erratic right-hander delivered five shutout innings before leaving due to a rain delay in a 7-1 victory over Kansas City on Friday, a stark improvement over his prior time out. Against Tampa Bay on July 17, Burnett was tagged for four runs in two-plus innings and was forced to exit early after cutting both his hands on a clubhouse door in frustration.
Aside from that forgettable performance, Burnett has actually pitched very well this month. After enduring a five-start losing streak from June 4-26, the 33-year-old has gone 2-1 with a 2.61 ERA in four July assignments.
One of Burnett's best showings of the year came against the Indians, a May 30 win in which he allowed three runs -- one earned -- and struck out eight without a walk over eight innings. He's still just 2-4 with a 5.68 ERA in seven career starts versus Cleveland, and 0-4 with a 9.00 ERA through four all-time visits to Progressive Field.
New York took three of four games from the Indians in that late-May series at Yankee Stadium and has prevailed in eight of the last 11 clashes between the teams. In their only visit to Cleveland last season, the Yankees won three of four tests from the Tribe.
<< Blue Jays try to add to Orioles' misery
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Jose Bautista may still not be a familiar name among many
baseball fans, but the Baltimore Orioles know all too well how good the
Toronto Blue Jays slugger has been this season.
The major league's leading home run hitter i
<< Eskimos in search of elusive first win
Edmonton, AB (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Off to their worst start in nearly half a
century, the Edmonton Eskimos again take aim at their first win of 2010 when
they entertain the British Columbia Lions on Friday night at Commonwealth
Stadium.
Edmont
<< Roughriders seek return to win column in clash with Tiger-Cats
Regina, SK (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - No longer the last undefeated team in the CFL
this season, the Saskatchewan Roughriders try to continue their recent
dominance over the Hamilton Tiger-Cats when the two squads clash at Mosaic
Stadium in Regina on S
<< Argos and Als square off for first in the East
Montreal, QC (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - With their touchdown drought now a memory, the
Montreal Alouettes turn their attention to the Toronto Argonauts as the two
clubs, tied for the lead in the CFL's Eastern Division, tangle at McGill
Stadium on Thurs
Ellis shuts down Panama in 9-2 win >>
Thunder Bay, Canada (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Mike Ellis is like any other player on
Canada's junior national baseball team - following his passion by playing the
sport he loves.
What's different about him and the rest of Team Canada's 18-and-under
Blue Jackets avoid arbitration with Stralman >>
Columbus, OH (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Columbus Blue Jackets have re-signed
defenseman Anton Stralman to a one-year contract.
Financial terms were not disclosed, but the agreement avoided a salary
arbitration hearing scheduled for
Stampeders play host to Blue Bombers >>
Calgary, AB (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Having knocked off the last unbeaten club in
the CFL during the fourth week of the 2010 season, the Calgary Stampeders now
try to better their position atop the Western Division standings as they clash
with the Wi
CFL Previews - July 29-31 - Week Five >>
Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) -
TORONTO ARGONAUTS (3-1) AT MONTREAL ALOUETTES (3-1)
DATE & TIME: Thursday, July 29, 7:30 p.m. (et).
GAME NOTES: With their touchdown drought now a memory, the Montreal Alouettes
turn their attenti
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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After all the trouble that’s ensued since Braylon Edwards allegedly punched one of LeBron James’ homeboys in the face at a club, the Cleveland Browns have sent away their last remaining player of worth to the New York Jets. This is a great move for Dirty Sanchez and all, but it’s even better for the Knicks. Now Donnie Walsh can say, “You get to haunt Braylon Edwards with your posse if you sign here!” next summer.
Putting that aside for a moment, the move is a clear indication that the new-look Jets are gunning for the Super Bowl this year. I don’t think that New York thought that Dirty Sanchez was going to be such a rock star. With a 75.2 passer rating that was killed against the Jets, Sanchez is doing an admirable job of managing games and putting the Jets in a position to win. The defense has been the major story in New York thus far, but the acquisition of Braylon Edwards makes this offense loaded with talent that can dent any defense…as long as Dirty Sanchez continues his meteoric rise.
Thus far, Edwards has been a non-factor in the NFL piling up just 139 receiving yards on 10 catches. He has yet to find the endzone, and with the Browns mired in the most unsexy quarterback controversy of all time (Anderson vs. Quinn...yawn), there going nowhere fast. Edwards is two seasons removed from a career year which saw him catch 80 passes for 1,289 yards and 16 touchdowns when the Browns were the spread killing monsters of 2007. In 2008, injuries slowed the receiver down to just 873 yards and three touchdowns though he played in all 16 games.
So that being said, we really don’t know if Braylon Edwards is just a flash in the pan, or a legit threat. At 6-foot-3 and 215 pounds, he is a prototypical receiver. But he’s also shown a strange, and unwarranted, talent for dropping passes. Lining up opposite Jericho Cotchery, a speed demon with 23 catches, 356 yards and a single touchdown, may give Braylon the open looks he needs. A change of scenery may also rejuvenate the star receiver.
In return, the Browns will receive Chansi Stuckey, online football betting a special teams player you’ve never heard of and a pair of draft picks. That’s a tall order for a guy whose only real value right now is in his name, and it shows no promise to the Browns that they can rebuild around those acquisitions. Braylon was the only reason to hope for the Browns to go 3-14 SU this year. Without him, they don’t have a single guy on offense that can scare any team.
For the Jets, it’s a response to the pounding that they took at the hand of the Saints. Thomas Jones and Leon Washington have averaged around 4.0 yards per carry each on the ground, but striking a fair balance between the passing and rushing attacks in New York has been a struggle. You have to believe that the trio of Dustin Keller, Jericho Cotchery and Braylon Edwards will give Sanchez the weapons he needs to unleash through the air. Theoretically, that would open up holes for the rushing game. But the proposed public option health care plan works in theory too. We need to see the proof in the pudding before we start loading up mega bucks on the New York Jets to take the AFC.
The one wrinkle in this whole thing is that Braylon could very well be suspended by the league for disciplinary action due to his “brawl” with LeBron’s friend. If that’s the case, the Jets may have to bench him for a few games leaving them with a somewhat depleted receiving corps for a few games. Also, this is a guy who gets in fights with people at clubs. New York may not be the best place for him. Just sayin’.
The Jets have a long week before they meet the Miami Dolphins on Monday Night Football Betting in a virtual pick ‘em game. Braylon’s excess baggage may be a distraction, and his curiously low production may be what we should be expecting of him overall, but for the Jets, taking a chance to strike gold is well worth it. At the end of the year, they can simply just blame it on their rookie quarterback.
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