AFC North: Will Big Ben Play? Will It Matter?

Football Betting Lines

12/30/2008 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - An eerie silence pervaded Heinz Field as Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger was being strapped to a backboard in the second quarter of Pittsburgh's eventual 31-0 thrashing of the Cleveland Browns.

There was concern for Roethlisberger, who it turned out had suffered a minor concussion and, luckily for all involved, not the more serious injury that a call for immobilization of the head and neck generally indicates.

There were also whispers about head coach Mike Tomlin's decision to use the oft-battered Roethlisberger in a game that meant absolutely nothing for the Steelers, who were locked into the No. 2 playoff slot in the AFC.

Generally speaking, the worst-case scenario when a star player participates in a meaningless game such as this one is just such an injury, and many Steelers fans may have wondered if the team's Super Bowl hopes were flashing before their eyes as Roethlisberger was being removed from the sandlot-quality Heinz Field playing surface.

Tomlin said after the Cleveland win that he was hopeful Roethlisberger would play when the team hosts a Divisional Playoff game on Jan. 11, and on Tuesday told reporters that the former Pro Bowler was "doing better."

Roethlisberger's status is bound to be a topic of conversation and media speculation in advance of the Steelers' playoff date with the Dolphins, Chargers, or Colts...though should it?

Sure, the former first-round pick has a Super Bowl win on his resume, has topped 3,000 passing yards in each of the past three seasons and is undeniably talented, but let's not pretend he's the first, second, or third reason that Pittsburgh is a 12-4 division-winner in 2008.

Though a weak offensive line is largely to blame, Roethlisberger hasn't posted a triple-digit passer rating since Week 7, threw a scant eight touchdown passes versus 12 interceptions over his final 10 games, and presides over the NFL's No. 22 offense (311.9 yards per game) and No. 17 passing offense (206.3 yards per game).

Does anyone think Byron Leftwich - who has looked at ease in two games of extended relief this season - would fail to live up to those lofty numbers?

The truth is that the Steelers continue to win in spite of their offense, not because of it, and it is the defense that will have to carry Pittsburgh if the team wishes to raise the Lombardi Trophy in a month's time.

The Black and Gold finished the regular season ranked No. 1 in the league in total defense (237.2 yards per game), scoring defense (13.9 points per game), and passing defense (156.9 yards per game), and finished a close second in NFL rushing defense (80.2 yards per game) behind only the Minnesota Vikings.

Three Steelers defenders were named to the Pro Bowl (Troy Polamalu, James Farrior, James Harrison), one more should have been (LaMarr Woodley), and cases could be made for at least two others (Casey Hampton, Aaron Smith).

Meanwhile, neither Roethlisberger nor a single member of the Steelers offense either received or was worthy of a Pro Bowl citation.

That's not meant as a knock, but rather an illustration of how dominant the Steelers "D" has been this year, most recently in a game in which they allowed all of 20 passing yards, eight first downs, and 126 total yards to the hapless Browns offense.

In other words, Pittsburgh's loyal fan base need not fret as they ring in the New Year, as long as the only injury news they have to hear about involves a guy wearing No. 7, and not No. 43.

BENGALS: In years past, a large selection of Bengals fans might throw up their hands and bemoan how their team's jump from 0-8 irrelevance to 4-11-1 irrelevance had cost the franchise a top-five Draft pick.

But in the NFL circa 2008, and with signing bonuses for top-five picks being what they are, every win that the Bengals posted during their respectable late-season run meant a couple less million they would have to pay to an untested college superstar next summer.

And given the franchise's reputation for provoking player unrest due to a penchant for tossing around nickels like manhole covers, fans need to recognize that a spot outside the 2009 Draft's top five can only be a good thing.

With the No. 6 pick, Cincinnati should have no trouble finding the offensive or defensive lineman so sorely needed to help turn the organization's flagging fortunes around, and shouldn't find it impossible to locate the dollars to pay him, either.

With Carson Palmer and Chad Johnson presumably back and healthy in 2009, and with Cedric Benson coming in on the heels of a breakout half-season in the Bengals backfield, there is reason for optimism that the team can turn its fortunes around quickly next year.

The team's seeming stronger attitude during the second half of 2008 also speaks to the notion of a team on the cusp of good things.

"I think we found at the end of the season that guys who want to play are going to be better than guys who aren't quite sure whether they want to play," said head coach Marvin Lewis, who will be back for a seventh season in 2009. "If you have 11 guys out there wanting to play and wanting to get it done correctly, you have a chance to be more productive. I think that's important and a good lesson."

BROWNS: For a time, the 2008 Cleveland Browns were considered a disappointment because they failed to live up to the immense promise that followed them into the season.

Then, in the final six weeks of the campaign, the 2008 Cleveland Browns morphed from a disappointing team into one of the most punchless, uncompetitive clubs in the organization's long history, perhaps matched only by the team's "expansion" season of 1999.

The Browns, who entered the season with Pro Bowlers or former Pro Bowlers at quarterback, wide receiver, tight end, running back, and left tackle, somehow managed to go their final 24 quarters of the year without scoring an offensive touchdown, an NFL record for futility. Romeo Crennel's squad was outscored by a margin of 129-31 during its season-ending 0-6 stretch, with four different starting quarterbacks presiding over that run. The Browns were shut out in each of their final two games, against the Bengals (14-0) and Steelers (31-0), falling into sole possession of last place in an AFC North that many had them winning entering the year.

In all a dismal, confounding performance, one that cost both Crennel and general manager Phil Savage their jobs soon after the final second had ticked off the Heinz Field clock this past Sunday.

Team owner Randy Lerner called Crennel, who fashioned a 24-40 record in four seasons on the job, a "gentleman through and through" and did not rule out a future position for Crennel in the organization.

Of Savage, Lerner noted, "We talked about change and about strengthening the organization. It became very clear that our management styles were not going to be adequately compatible going forward."

Lerner immediately commenced the general manager and coaching search, receiving permission to interview Patriots' personnel executive Scott Pioli to start what is expected to be an extensive process.

The Browns are 54-107 (.335) since returning to the NFL in 1999, and have made only one playoff appearance (a loss to the Steelers in 2002) over that span.

RAVENS: As it turns out, a sprint to the finish is the only thing that would have put the Baltimore Ravens into the playoff bracket in 2008.

Two weeks ago, after a heartbreaking loss to the Steelers sent John Harbaugh's team to 9-5, team leaders such as Ray Lewis spoke of the need to get to 11-5 and not put the Ravens' playoff fate in anyone else's hands.

The team got the message, as wins over the Cowboys (33-24) and Jaguars (27-7) raised the mark to 11-5, and gave Baltimore the No. 6 and final seed in the AFC playoff bracket thanks to a better conference record than the similarly 11-5 New England Patriots.

The Ravens will travel to meet AFC East Champion Miami for a Wild Card round game this Sunday, and will have a chance to win the franchise's first playoff contest since it defeated the Dolphins back in the 2001 Wild Card round.

All for a team coming off a last-place, 5-11 finish a year ago, one with a rookie quarterback, head coach, and a ton of uncertainty in the eyes of those who failed to predict big things for Baltimore heading into 2008.

"That tells you what everybody who plays or coaches in the league already knows," said Harbaugh on Monday. "It's amazing to me that observers of the league don't realize this. Predictors and prognosticators make such bold statements about who's going to do what. There's no way to make those predictions in this league. Everybody in this league is really good. [Each team has] really good coaches, really good players, and any team from one year to the next can rise up and have a good year. There's a real fine line. It's different in college football. There's a fine line in the NFL because everybody is professional and they're at the top of the game, without question."

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Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

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