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07/07/2010 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - They are often the brashest of players, but it seems these days those who play with a swagger elevate their game and by nature their teams to new heights. Whether they go by wide receiver, flanker or any other name, these players can change the momentum of a game with one play.
Here are the top wideouts heading into the 2010 season.
A.J. GREEN, GEORGIA
Perhaps the top "difference maker" on the outside in all of the FBS, Green can do it all. At 6-foot-4, 205 pounds, there isn't much to dislike about this Bulldog. Plenty of speed and great hands separate him from the rest of field. A two-time All-SEC First Team selection, Green is coming off a 2009 campaign in which he hauled in 53 balls for 808 yards and six touchdowns. Those numbers were slightly off his amazing freshman season (56 receptions for 963 yards and eight TDs), but a lot of that had to do with injuries and the Bulldogs' lack of consistency as a whole last year (8-5). If Georgia is to return to SEC glory in 2010, expect Green to be the main reason why.
MICHAEL FLOYD, NOTRE DAME
The definition of a big play wideout. The Irish have something special in Floyd, who will probably jump ship to the NFL following this season. With great size (6-3, 220) and athleticism, it is awfully tough to contain him down the field. Last season, he played in just seven games before breaking his collarbone, and still finished with 44 receptions for 795 yards and nine TDs. There will be a new QB in South Bend to go with a new coaching staff and new system, but if Brian Kelly is to bring the Irish back to prominence, Floyd is the kind of building block to start with.
JONATHAN BALDWIN, PITTSBURGH
Showed immediate promise as a freshman in 2008, averaging 22.4 yards per catch on 18 receptions. Baldwin took it to a higher level as a sophomore, grabbing 57 balls for 1,111 yards and eight TDs. At 6-5, 225 pounds, he has the size that keeps NFL scouts drooling. Whether he takes the next step and becomes a household name this year depends a lot on the quarterback situation at Pittsburgh. Baldwin enjoyed great success with a veteran signal-caller last season and will need to form a solid foundation early on with the Panthers' new QB if he is to put up big numbers again. Pittsburgh will once again rely heavily on the run, but when the team goes vertical, Baldwin will be the target more often than not.
JULIO JONES, ALABAMA
Yes, the Crimson Tide won the national championship last season, but it took the extremely gifted Jones quite awhile to get going and be a regular contributor. The 6-4, 211-pounder struggled with injuries in 2009, after being named the SEC Freshman of the Year and earning All-American honors in 2008. His 24 receptions for 331 yards and three TDs this past season certainly aren't the kind of numbers that jump out at you, but, make no mistake, when he's healthy, he rivals the best in the game. The Crimson Tide have some holes to fill this year, but the offensive side of the ball will remain potent. A devastating ground game led by reigning Heisman Trophy winner Mark Ingram should open things up for Jones down the field, providing he is able to suit up all season long.
RYAN BROYLES, OKLAHOMA
Broyles won't scare defenders with his size (5-11, 183), but still creates mismatches. The Sooners had a down year in 2009, but Broyles didn't. Despite a quarterback change resulting in the loss of the then-reigning Heisman Trophy winner, Broyles still put up huge numbers, hauling in a school-record 89 balls for 1,120 yards and a school-record-tying 15 TDs, dwarfing his 2008 season, when he set the school record for receiving yards by a freshman (687). The OU offense will be much better this season with a "veteran" sophomore QB under center. The Sooners will return to national prominence in 2010 and Broyles will have a big hand in that.
JAMES CLEVELAND, HOUSTON
Cleveland has finally found a home at Houston. A former Iowa Hawkeye who spent a season at Trinity Valley Community College, the 6-1, 205-pounder settled in with the Cougars last season and formed an immediate connection with standout QB Case Keenum while being tabbed the 2009 Conference USA Newcomer of the Year. Did Cleveland benefit from the system in Houston? Who cares. His first year couldn't have gone much better, as he caught just about everything thrown his way, resulting in 104 receptions for 1,214 yards and 14 TDs. He has the kind of size to be effective at the next level and another big year in the FBS ranks could have him climb the draft boards at a rapid pace. Houston will be in the hunt for the Conference USA crown, and look for the Keenum-to-Cleveland connection to be front and center along the way.
JERMAINE KEARSE, WASHINGTON
There hasn't been much to cheer about as a Washington fan the last couple of years, but the potential of the 6-2, 200-pound Kearse is certainly reason for optimism in 2010. An All-Pac-10 Second Team selection as a sophomore, Kearse led the team in receptions (50), receiving yards (866) and TDs (eight) in 2009. He has one of the game's top quarterbacks in Jake Locker back in the fold, so look for another increase in numbers. Whether his production helps the rebuilding Huskies add to their modest five-win total from 2009 remains to be seen, but the talented Kearse must be accounted for at all times.
JAMES RODGERS, OREGON STATE
This talented Beaver is overshadowed by his little brother (running back Jacquizz Rodgers) in Corvallis, but is certainly a game-changer in his own right. A versatile player, the elder Rodgers is one of the Pac-10's elite wideouts, who doesn't mind getting involved in the ground game, return game, or as a blocker, despite his diminutive size (5-7, 188). Last season, Rodgers was an All-Pac-10 First Team selection after setting a school record with 91 receptions, going for 1,034 yards with nine TDs. He also set OSU's single- season record for all-purpose yardage (2,328). A tough non-conference slate that includes TCU and Boise State may hinder the team's ability to exceed last season's eight-win total, but with the ultra-talented Rodgers' brothers on the field, anything is possible.
GREG SALAS, HAWAII
Playing in the WAC usually won't help a player in terms of national attention. Add to that the fact that he plays well off the mainland at the University of Hawaii and you can understand how this talented wideout has gone overlooked week-in and week-out. As a junior in 2009, Salas was among the nation's leaders, finishing with 106 receptions for 1,590 yards and eight TDs, leading the WAC in both receptions and receiving yards per game (fourth in the nation at 122.3 ypg). He plays the slot position for the Warriors and the 6-2 California native is as reliable an outlet as there is in FBS. Hawaii finished just under .500 last year (6-7) and if the team is to earn a winning season in 2010, you can bet Salas' fingerprints will be all over it.
TITUS YOUNG, BOISE STATE
A key cog for one of college football's most prolific offenses, Young burst on the scene as a junior in 2009, hauling in 79 balls for 1,041 yards and 10 TDs and becoming a go-to-guy for All-American QB Kellen Moore. Having Austin Pettis (63 balls for 855 yards and 14 TDs) on the other side doesn't hurt either, but Young is much more versatile, scoring three more TDs on the ground and another two on kick returns, while earning All-WAC First Team honors in 2009 as both a receiver and return specialist. What Young lacks in size (5-11, 170), he more than makes up for in playmaking ability. The Broncos could finish their stay in the WAC (they're moving to the Mountain West in 2011) with a national championship run. Look for Young to be a difference maker on a weekly basis.
OTHERS TO KEEP AN EYE ON: Austin Pettis (Boise State), Deonte Thompson (Florida), Leonard Hankerson (Miami-Florida), Alshon Jeffrey (South Carolina), Devier Posey (Ohio State), Niles Paul (Nebraska).
<< Fish rolls; Querrey ousted in Newport
Newport, RI (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Fifth-seeded American Mardy Fish booked a
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free agent may take a little longer to choose his next team.
It was originally expected that
<< Dutch star Sneijder proves he's good enough
Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Wesley Sneijder wasn't good enough. That's
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would r
<< Report: Jets T Ferguson gets extension
New York, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The New York Jets have reportedly handed
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request
Rose, Fowler, Watson in...Kim and Toms out at British Open >>
St. Andrews, Scotland (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Fresh off his second PGA Tour win of
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Padres P Bell named to All-Star team >>
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Will Ohio State continue to run the table in College Football betting odds?
MySportsbook.com favors Buckeyes, Fighting Irish and Golden Bears in this weekend's big games.
NEW YORK, NY, Sept. 21 - My Sportsbook NCAA football fans: things are beginning to get really interesting on college football's national stage. Following last weekend's "Separation Saturday", which included five teams ranked in the top 15 dropping games, the BCS Championship picture is beginning to take shape - with Ohio State leading the charge. And, according to odds makers at MySportsbook.com, the number-one-ranked Buckeyes will continue their winning ways this weekend.
Revenge will be the name of the game in Columbus this Saturday, as Ohio State looks to even the score following last season's loss to Joe Paterno's Nittany Lions. Although Penn State are listed as 16.5 point underdogs, they are 11-10 all-time versus the Buckeyes. Paterno and the Lions, however, will have to shut down Heisman Trophy favorite Troy Smith who has thrown for 769 yards and seven touchdowns this season.
Speaking of revenge, Notre Dame will be out for some against Michigan State, following last year's 44 - 41 overtime loss to the Spartans in South Bend. The thirteenth-ranked Irish, listed as a 3-point favorite, will also be looking to avenge last Saturday's thrashing from the Michigan Wolverines. The Spartans, meanwhile, have won seven of the last nine match-ups against Notre Dame and are coming off an impressive 38-23 victory over Pittsburgh.
Out west, 22nd-ranked Arizona State will be battling for their first victory over 21st-ranked California since 2000. Although the Golden Bears are listed as 7.5-point favorites, the Sun Devils are 3-0, lead the nation in sacks with 18 and possess the Pac-10's leading passer in sophomore quarterback Rudy Carpenter.
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NCAA Football betting lines (home team in CAPS)
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Date Favorite Opponent Point Spread
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Sept 21 GEORGIA TECH Virginia 17
Sept 22 NEVADA Northwestern 6.5
Sept 23 MICHIGAN Wisconsin 14
Sept 23 Minnesota PURDUE 3
Sept 23 SYRACUSE Miami (Ohio) 6.5
Sept 23 MISSOURI Ohio 21.5
Sept 23 Louisville KANSAS STATE 14
Sept 23 TENNESSEE Marshall 22
Sept 23 CLEMSON North Carolina 16.5
Sept 23 FLORIDA Kentucky 24
Sept 23 Iowa ILLINOIS 20.5
Sept 23 FLORIDA STATE Rice 30.5
Sept 23 AUBURN Buffalo 41.5
Sept 23 BOWLING GREEN Kent 7
Sept 23 NAVY Tulsa 4.5
Sept 23 VIRGINIA TECH Cincinnati 27
Sept 23 BYU Utah State 29
Sept 23 OHIO STATE Penn State 16.5
Sept 23 TEXAS Iowa State 25
Sept 23 Washington State STANFORD 10
Sept 23 CALIFORNIA Arizona State 7.5
Sept 23 UCLA WASHINGTON 3
Sept 23 INDIANA Connecticut 1.5
Sept 23 Central Michigan EASTERN MICHIGAN 4
Sept 23 WYOMING Air Force 1
Sept 23 UTEP NEW MEXICO 9.5
Sept 23 West Virginia EAST CAROLINA 21
Sept 23 Boston College NORTH CAROLINA STATE 7
Sept 23 GEORGIA Colorado 27
Sept 23 ARKANSAS Alabama 1.5
Sept 23 BAYLOR Army 11
Sept 23 WESTERN MICHIGAN Temple 28
Sept 23 MISSISSIPPI Wake Forest 2.5
Sept 23 KANSAS South Florida 5.5
Sept 23 TEXAS A&M Louisiana Tech 23.5
Sept 23 UAB Mississippi State 9.5
Sept 23 LSU Tulane 36
Sept 23 Utah SAN DIEGO STATE 6.5
Sept 23 BOISE STATE Hawaii 15
Sept 23 Notre Dame MICHIGAN STATE 3
Sept 23 USC ARIZONA U 22
Sept 23 Oklahoma State HOUSTON 1
Sept 23 OREGON STATE Idaho 23
Sept 23 OKLAHOMA Middle Tennessee State 29
Sept 23 MARYLAND Florida International 18.5
Sept 23 AKRON North Texas 17.5
Sept 23 SOUTH CAROLINA Florida Atlantic 29.5
Sept 23 NEBRASKA Troy 23
Sept 23 SMU Arkansas State 6
For complete NCAA football odds and World Series odds please visit MySportsbook.com
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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